CAPLA faculty awarded grant to support planning in Idaho community
An aerial view of Ketchum, Idaho, a gateway community where rapid growth and rising housing demand are shaping conversations around land use and long-term water sustainability.
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Associate Professor Philip Stoker and Professor Shujuan Li received a two-year grant to support community scenario planning and long-term water supply planning in Blaine County, Idaho.
Stoker and Li will contribute expertise in urban growth modeling, water demand forecasting and mapping to help local leaders better understand how development patterns may shape future water resources.
The project centers on Blaine County, a region experiencing rapid growth driven by tourism, agriculture and its proximity to outdoor recreation. Like many gateway communities, the area faces mounting pressure from population increases, limited land for development and concerns about long-term water availability.
Stoker has been an active part of the Gateway & Natural Amenity Region Initiative for six years and counting, leading their research into gateway communities.
“Those are the small towns outside of national parks, scenic rivers or national forests. They often have “big city” problems like traffic and a lack of affordable housing because a lot of people move there and it really can change the community,” he said. “There tends to be a lot of wealthy second homeowners and short term rentals.”
Through that initiative, Stoker learned about the funding opportunity after Blaine County issued a call for proposals. He hoped to draw on his experience estimating future water use in the Phoenix metropolitan area and apply it to a new region.
He and Li were ultimately selected over several consulting firms, bringing a university-based research approach to the project.
“They wanted to have someone do urban growth modeling, to predict how their cities were going to grow,” Stoker said. “Based on that, they also wanted to know how much water they would consume.”
Li’s work focuses on analyzing historical satellite and aerial imagery to model how cities expand over time, while Stoker applies water demand modeling to estimate how different growth patterns affect resource use. Together, their collaboration allows communities to visualize both where development may occur and how it could impact water systems.
Since the project began in January 2026, the team has been working with public utilities, planners and community leaders across multiple towns in the county. Their efforts include gathering local data, holding regular meetings and introducing scenario planning tools that can support long-term decision-making.
The region’s geography presents unique challenges, as development is largely concentrated in a narrow valley along a major river system. Balancing growth with environmental protection and agricultural preservation is a key concern for local stakeholders.
As growth continues, officials must consider how expanding ski resort communities may influence surrounding agricultural areas, where land use decisions carry both economic and cultural significance.
Water resources in Blaine County, Idaho, are central to ongoing efforts to balance rapid growth with long-term sustainability and environmental stewardship.
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“Eventually, these agricultural towns are going to be the ones that will be absorbing some of that growth,” Stoker said. “They need to decide either to protect their agricultural lands or if there’s going to be some transitions.”
A central part of the research includes analyzing “commute sheds,” which examine where people live in relation to where they work. This helps illustrate how rising housing costs and development pressures can push workers farther from employment centers, a common trend in gateway communities.
“It’s like a displaced workforce,” Stoker said. “We see this in a lot of gateway communities. It means you’re going to have to live further and further away in order to get to your job.”
The project is being carried out in partnership with the Wood River Land Trust (WRLT), which leads community engagement and project management while the CAPLA team provides technical analysis and mapping support.
“Out of a pool of seven proposals, the WRLT and a team of local technical advisors selected the CAPLA team as a university research partner,” WRLT Community Planning Director Cece Albertson said. “WRLT provides project management and takes the lead in the project's community engagement, while Philip and Shujuan are providing the technical expertise and assistance in data analysis and mapping.”
Local partners emphasize that the work is critical as water resources in the region face increasing strain from climate change, population growth and shifting environmental conditions.
“The Big Wood River and its tributaries are key to the vitality of life in south-central Idaho, community members across the county have voiced concern that water resources in the region are at risk and dwindling,” Albertson said.
Through scenario planning, the research team aims to equip decision-makers with clearer data on how different development choices could influence water demand and environmental outcomes. The goal is not to dictate policy, but to provide tools and insights that support informed, community-driven decisions.
“They are going to be the ones to make the decisions,” Stoker said. “We turn it all over at the end, so hopefully they are in a better position to make good, well-informed decisions.”
Ultimately, project leaders say success will be measured by how effectively the research informs land-use policies and conservation efforts, helping protect water resources while guiding sustainable growth in Blaine County.
“Improved and adopted land use regulations that protect sensitive habitats, concentrate development closer to municipal services and reduce water demand would make this project a success,” Albertson said.
